Always release the bad news midday on Friday, for brief mention in the ill-read Saturday paper.

Yesterday the U.S. State Department released its second annual Country Reports on Terrorism (click here for the report). This year, there were statistics. According to the government, there were 11,000 terrorist attacks around the world in 2005, which killed a total of 14,600 people. Iraq alone accounted for about one-third of these attacks and more than half of the fatalities. At a news conference announcing the report’s findings, the State Department’s counterterrorism coordinator put a happy face on the numbers, insisting that the world is becoming a safer place and the fight against terrorism can’t be measured “month by month or year by year.”

So how exactly are we doing in the “war on terror”? Do we have any idea of how last year compares to previous years? The National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), which compiled the report’s statistics, says that the 2005 figures cannot be compared to previous year’s figures because the center started using a new methodology for identifying terrorist attacks. This new methodology counts not just incidents of “international terrorism” (“incidents that involve the territory or citizens of two or more countries”), but acts of terrorism more broadly.

Perhaps I’m missing something here, but a browse through the NCTC’s online data pulls up not just the 2005 data, but also the 2004 data — beginning on January 1 and including incidents with victims from just one country (i.e., the broader definition of terrorism). These are the figures we get for 2004: 3,168 incidents of terrorism, 7,717 fatalities, 18,865 injuries, and 6,086 hostages. In 2005, there were 11,110 incidents, 14,602 fatalities, 24,755 injuries, and 34,780 hostages.

On all counts, the numbers have gone up — way up.

Now, I’m not sure when the methodology change occurred, or if it even applies to the data online (the difference may be between what’s online and the previous reports, for example). But assuming that the change occurred in May 2004 — as the Counterterrorism Blog suggests — then the figures later in the year should be comparable. In December 2004, there were 455 incidents and 692 deaths; in December 2005, there were 888 incidents and 1,013 deaths. In October 2004, there were 323 incidents and 628 deaths; in October 2005, there were 927 incidents and 1,377 deaths.

Again, the 2005 figures are substantially higher.

So is the world really a safer place? I’m not sure, but the numbers here don’t look promising. We should also remember that the government has quite a history of spinning terrorism numbers. Last year’s Country Reports on Terrorism did not include statistics after a controversy over what to categorize as “terrorist incidents.” Counterterrorism officials declined to use an alternative accounting method recommended by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s office that would have reported fewer significant attacks. Rice’s office responded by creating the Country Reports on Terrorism — which replaced the previous series, Patterns of Global Terrorism — and refusing to include any numbers in the 2004 report. (At the news conference announcing that report, however, State Department officials did provide figures: 1,907 people had been killed and 9,300 wounded in terrorist attacks in 2004, they said — the highest ever.)

Before that, there was a flap over the 2003 report, which the government hailed as showing a decline in terrorism when first released. After a barrage of criticism — including allegations from two academics that the numbers were being manipulated — the government revised its estimate upward two months later and admitted a “slight increase” in terror.

Here’s some insightful background on the government’s international terrorism reports from the Counterterrorism Blog.

You have to wonder how the U.S. government is going to win this war on terror if it can’t even get the numbers right.

Victor Tan Chen Victor Tan Chen is In The Fray's editor in chief and the author of Cut Loose: Jobless and Hopeless in an Unfair Economy. Site: victortanchen.com | Facebook | Twitter: @victortanchen