I wasn’t entirely clear on last week’s post about Proposition 187.  Worrying about the Hispanic vote is a secondary issue.  Even in California, as nasty Mickey Kaus points out (scroll down to March 30th), the Hispanic vote is not large enough to account for the swing towards Democrats.  It seems doubtful in any case that second- and third-generation immigrants are single-issue voters on immigration policy.

The dynamic is much more like the one facing Republicans over racial issues.  The real constituency of concern is not African Americans, who at this point are unattainable.  However, when the Republicans pander to the bigots in their base, they scare off centrist voters of all races and ethnicities.  The majority of American voters are simply not racist xenophobes, and they are going to find these sentiments distasteful.  Being worried about immigration does not mean that one hates immigrants.  

If a politician seems to be attacking your neighbor, your co-worker, or your friend, you are going to react against them.  In a state like California, a construction worker with right-wing views might vote Democratic because he is going to feel uncomfortable supporting bigotry against people he knows.  If he has never met a Mexican immigrant, the whole thing becomes abstract and impersonal.  It’s much easier to hate people you never meet in person.

An anti-immigrant policy may have short-term support. In the long run, as more Americans come into contact with immigrants, they will be more likely to support politicians who aren’t making their living by stoking up ethnic and racial animosity.

Pete DeWan