It is alleged that in the months leading up to the 1980 election between Ronald Reagan and incumbent Jimmy Carter that representatives of the Reagan campaign conspired to postpone the release of the hostages held by Iran until after the October election. This “October Surprise,” it is said, helped propel the so-called “Great Communicator” into the White House. Could it be that we’re in for another surprise this October?

The thought of our foreign policy being reduced to mere props in a domestic electoral play is deeply disturbing. But if an article in The New Republic holds water, that’s exactly what we’re looking at. It alleges that Pakistani security officials have been instructed by U.S. officials to deliver HVTs [high value targets] such as Osama bin Laden on specific days timed to coincide with the October election.          

The New Republic has learned that Pakistani security officials have been told they must produce HVTs [high value targets] by the election. According to one source in Pakistan’s powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), “The Pakistani government is really desperate and wants to flush out bin Laden and his associates after the latest pressures from the U.S. administration to deliver before the [upcoming] U.S. elections.” Introducing target dates for Al Qaeda captures is a new twist in U.S.-Pakistani counterterrorism relations — according to a recently departed intelligence official, “no timetable[s]” were discussed in 2002 or 2003 — but the November election is apparently bringing a new deadline pressure to the hunt. Another official, this one from the Pakistani Interior Ministry, which is responsible for internal security, explains, “The Musharraf government has a history of rescuing the Bush administration. They now want Musharraf to bail them out when they are facing hard times in the coming elections.” (These sources insisted on remaining anonymous. Under Pakistan’s Official Secrets Act, an official leaking information to the press can be imprisoned for up to 10 years.)

A third source, an official who works under ISI’s director, Lieutenant General Ehsan ul-Haq, informed TNR that the Pakistanis “have been told at every level that apprehension or killing of HVTs before [the] election is [an] absolute must.” What’s more, this source claims that Bush administration officials have told their Pakistani counterparts they have a date in mind for announcing this achievement: “The last ten days of July deadline has been given repeatedly by visitors to Islamabad and during [ul-Haq’s] meetings in Washington.” Says McCormack: “I’m aware of no such comment.” But according to this ISI official, a White House aide told ul-Haq last spring that “it would be best if the arrest or killing of [any] HVT were announced on twenty-six, twenty-seven, or twenty-eight July” — the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Boston.

Benjamin Helphand