North Korea is on its bad behavior once again. Right before the U.S. Fourth of July holiday the reclusive regime was back to threatening its neighbors and the United States, test-firing four short-range missiles. This came at a time when U.S.-North Korea tensions were already at a high point following the capture and imprisonment of two American journalists, Laura Ling and Euna Lee.

U.S. President Barack Obama has said he is ready to welcome North Korea back to the six-party talks, in an effort to calm the waters. But judging by its history, North Korea’s cycle of belligerence may just be starting.

Professor Morse Tan of the Florida Coastal School of Law says that these events are typical of how the North Koreans operate. They precipitate a crisis, then use negotiations to extract maximum benefit for the regime. They then break their side of the agreement and repeat the cycle again. He says that grasping the pattern in the context of Pyongyang’s objectives gives one a better understanding.

Tan explains that North Korea has three main long-term policy goals toward the South: “1) foment positive political sentiment towards itself in South Korea, which has been succeeding to an extent, especially in some parts of the media, the government and the younger generations; 2) eliminate U.S. military involvement on the peninsula – which is why they have repeatedly asked for a peace treaty with the U.S.; 3) re-unify the two Koreas by military force.”

North Korea has surely been doing its best to precipitate a crisis in recent weeks, with its nuclear and missile tests, closure of its joint venture factories with South Korea, and the detention of the U.S. journalists and one South Korean citizen.

Now reports suggest that North Korea was behind cyber attacks on U.S. and South Korean business and government websites this week. In the United States, the Pentagon, New York Stock Exchange and White House were targeted. In South Korea, the Defense Ministry, Presidential Blue House, and numerous media websites were hit by suspected North Korean cyber attacks.

This saber-rattling is not likely to result in a North Korea-U.S. peace treaty any time soon. Most observers think the six-party talks are the best hope of bringing some resolution. Professor Tan, however, cautions against expecting early success through the talks.

“The six-party talks will continue only if North Korea thinks they can gain through them,” he says. “Five-party talks without North Korea could help coordinate the other five countries in response to North Korea. However, China and Russia have aided North Korea in various ways, notwithstanding their agreement to U.N. Security Council Resolutions 1874 and 1718, due perhaps to international pressure.”

Lost in North Korea’s high-risk game of nuclear brinkmanship is the plight of the country’s regular citizen. The regime appears least bothered about its starving and suffering people, and instead continues to spend millions on weapons programs.

A report from the World Food Program says that North Korea is now severely limiting the distribution of food aid in the country. The U.N. children’s aid agency, UNICEF, is also restricted in the country; recently it was banned from working in the country’s most impoverished region.

Day-to-day life for a normal citizen in North Korea is a steep struggle, Tan says. “Far from any system that rewards merit and work, the North Korean regime divides the populace based on perceived political standing. The three basic categories are: core, wavering and hostile. Within these three categories, there are fifty some sub-categories.

“The core are the elite, while the “hostile” are sent to concentration camps where they are subjected to sever malnourishment, relentless heavy labor – about 14 to 16 hours every day – cruel torture, and in many instances death through malnourishment, over-work, torture, sickness or outright execution. The middle categories make up the large peasant populace that resort to eating bark, grass and leaves in a despondent attempt to ward off starvation.”

North Korea’s acts against its own citizens are indeed criminal and evil. But there is hope; the international community and even regular citizens can do their bit to help the people and isolate the regime. Professor Tan suggests that U.S. groups could invite North Korean sports teams and cultural groups to help break the ice and initiate people-to-people contact, as the South Koreans have done. The New York Philharmonic’s performance in Pyongyang last year stands out in this regard.

The failing health of leader Kim Jong Ill has been widely reported, and a change in leadership could bring an opening for change, however small. Kim’s successor is reported to be his youngest son, Kim Jong Un, who has studied in Switzerland and is in his mid-twenties. His exposure to Western society could be a positive sign, says Tan.

With North Korea things are never what they seem. But no matter how belligerent the regime, the long-suffering citizens of the country are worth every effort to bring the reclusive regime back into the world community.

Originally published July 09,2009. UPI AsiaOnline

Bhumika Ghimire