In the last few weeks, the relationship between Germany and the United States faced a test.  It failed.  U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited Berlin for the first high-profile meeting with the new coalition government.  Serious questions about the secret CIA prisons in Europe and Germany’s role in facilitating their operation were already on the agenda.   The publication of the story of the abduction of Khaled el-Masri in The Washington Post forced this issue into the discussion as well.

The story has been in the German media and various other outlets for some time.  In 2003, el-Masri claims he was abducted from Macedonia by U.S. officials after being arrested by Macedonian police.  From there he was shipped to Afghanistan, held incommunicado and subjected to imprisonment in inhumane conditions.  As it turned out, el-Masri was mistakenly held and later released.  To avoid exacerbating problems in the relationship between Germany and America stemming from Germany’s refusal to support the invasion of Iraq, the two governments agreed to keep the issue quiet.  It turns out that various actors in the German government were complicit in the act, creating a furor in the Bundestag.  States have a fundamental responsibility to protect their citizens from these types of incidents, and the public outcry in Germany is forcing the government to take action.

This comes at a time when a warming of the relationship between Germany and America seemed likely.  After weeks of negotiations following inconclusive election results, the accession of Angela Merkel of the Christian Democrats to the German Chancellorship was gratifying to the American government.  The former Chancellor, silver-tongued Gerhard Schroeder of the Social Democrats, had enraged Washington with his decision to campaign on a pledge to keep Germany out of the Iraq adventure.  The changeover from left to right political control seemed as if it might make a partial return to the prior understanding between Berlin and Washington possible.

Facing the threat of the Soviet Union and the partition of Germany after WWII, the United States and Germany formed strong ties, with Germany playing the part of junior partner.  On various occasions throughout those years, American policy and German public opinion diverged quite substantially, just as they did over the invasion of Iraq.  Most contentious perhaps was the argument over the placement of nuclear missiles in Germany during the Reagan administration, which engendered massive protests.  However, each time a disagreement arose, German leadership chose to side with the American government rather than its own population, recognizing the importance of the United States in the battle with Soviet communism.  When this threat dissipated, it seemed only a matter of time until events forced a renegotiation of the terms of the relationship.  This happened in 2003.  Germany moved along a scale from a position much like Poland, generally supporting American initiatives, to one more like France, in which the government will oppose American actions if it seems in their best interests.

Although complete rapprochement is improbable, America had its best chance with Angela Merkel, a conservative and market-oriented politician from the East.  Raised under communism, she may be more likely to see the security relationship between the two countries as crucial.  Free-market conservatives also have a natural affinity for America’s less regulated capitalism.  

However, closer ties would likely have required quiet and slow steps.  The German population is still strongly against the war in Iraq and American positions regarding terrorism and global warming are broadly unpopular.  A quick survey of articles in Der Speigel shows this is not the case.  Instead, the incident has blown up, even threatening the cohesiveness of the German Grand Coalition.

Instead of a partial rapprochement, we are seeing the solidification of a more distant relationship, with Germany independently asserting its strength as a mid-range power and a voice for Europe, and the United States helpless to do anything other than accept this as the new reality.

Pete DeWan